World Cup 2026 Simulator
| # | Grp | Team | Pts | GD | GF | Rank | Status | Match |
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| Team | Elo | R32 | R16 | QF | SF | 4th | 3rd | Final | 2nd | Winner |
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| Team | Tier | xT Score | Exp. Finish | Win% | SF% |
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| Confidence Level | Required (Pts | GD) |
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| Group | 3rd Qual % | Avg ELO | Gap 2nd-3rd | Gap 3rd-4th | Imbalance |
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Calculates the average win percentage of teams from one group against another.
| ID | Group | Teams (Placeholder) | Host City | Match ELO | ELO Diff | Win % - Draw % - Loss % |
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| Match | Host City | Top 5 vs Top 5 | Top 10 vs Top 10 | Top 15 vs Top 15 | Not Top 20 vs Not Top 20 | Messi OR Ronaldo | Messi AND Ronaldo | Most Likely Matchup | Best Pair Exp. ELO | Exp. Match Quality |
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The Big Bracket Theory is a data-driven FIFA World Cup 2026 simulator based on ELO ratings and Monte Carlo simulations.
The model was developed by analyzing patterns from previous international tournaments, linking ELO rating differences to expected goals (xG). Thousands of full-tournament simulations are then run to estimate qualification paths and title probabilities.
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